A Brexit Analysis.

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There are really only two choices the government can make: no deal or a customs union for the period of the transition and until such time as we can solve the northern Irish border problem. Second votes, general elections or even new prime ministers merely delay but do not change that choice.

A Brexiterr leader could say right brace yourself everyone. It will be bumpy but it is this outcome is the closest to what you voted for. We will waste no further time seeking a deal because we do not like the only one on offer. This approach will be claimed to end uncertainty but that is not really true given the number of unknowns. Nor could you expect the EU to re engage on the future relationship by simply shrugging off their wins in the withdrawal agreement. They would want their 39bn and much else. Relations with our nearest neighbours would be soured. But it could be done and under the right leadership and polling shows it has a decent following in the country widely. It also cannot happen unless there is a general election because so many MPs are against it. So it is possible but unlikely.

So we are left with the customs union option but that is not being sold intelligently. The UK economy is of course highly integrated with European markets. The Customs union makes trade within that market easy but of course membership precludes trade deals worldwide. A solution is to say we will be a member of the customs union for say 5 years. In that period a Brexiteer PM promises to deliver on the global Britain vision sold but as yet unproven in the 2016 referendum. Germany sells ten time more to China than UK does so there is plenty of scope for UK to expand trade with non EU countries with or without a trade deal. Then at the next election parties can choose to put leaving or staying in that the customs union in their manifesto. Presumably, Labour would argue to stay and Tories to leave. The electorate decides. No need to have a separate ballot. This gives till 2021 to sort the Northern Ireland border.